We're used to watching the price of oil mock gravity, but there's an even more essential commodity that's also become scarcer and pricier in recent months: Traders are paying record prices for wheat on world markets, thanks in part to shortages caused by a mix of drought and flooding. Canada, the second-biggest wheat producer after the U.S., looks set to harvest its smallest crop in five years, due to an unusually dry July, while production in the European Union may be down nearly 40% from last year. Growing global demand for biofuels is also eating up grain production, and boosting prices. 

    As a result of the supply squeeze, global inventories of wheat are expected to fall to their lowest level in 26 years, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. 

    If the world warms as expected over the coming decades, the terrible farming year of 2007 may be just the beginning. As temperatures rise, many studies predict that crop yields will decline, as the extreme droughts and floods that damaged this year's wheat crops become more common. The most fertile areas are likely to be found further north in response to the heat, opening up the possibility of agriculture in territories such as Siberia.

    我們對(duì)油價(jià)虛高已經(jīng)熟視無睹了，但是最近幾個(gè)月來，另一個(gè)更加基本的商品已經(jīng)變得越來越稀缺和昂貴了。貿(mào)易商們?cè)谑澜缡袌?chǎng)上正在為小麥付出歷史的高價(jià)，部分原因是由于干旱和水災(zāi)共同造成的短缺。居美國(guó)之后的第二大小麥生產(chǎn)國(guó)加拿大由于7月份異常的干旱看起來今年的收成將是5年來最差的。而歐盟小麥產(chǎn)量將比去年減少40%。全球性的對(duì)生物燃料需求的增加更多地消耗谷物產(chǎn)量并使價(jià)格進(jìn)一步提高。 

    根據(jù)美國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)部的預(yù)測(cè)，供應(yīng)緊縮造成的后果使全球小麥庫(kù)存可能會(huì)降到26年來的最低點(diǎn)。

    在未來幾十年，如果世界像預(yù)期的那樣變得越來越熱，2007年可怕的農(nóng)業(yè)可能僅僅是個(gè)開始。許多研究結(jié)果預(yù)測(cè)，隨著氣溫升高、農(nóng)作物的產(chǎn)量將下降，像今年那樣損害小麥作物的極端的干旱和水災(zāi)將變得更加平凡。隨著氣候變暖，最肥沃的區(qū)域可能會(huì)北移，這就為開發(fā)類似于西伯利亞那樣的地域提供了可能性。